As some of you might have known, I had attended my sister’s commencement ceremony last Saturday. And as any of you who have attended the ceremony can testify, commencements are brain-numbingly boring affair. For the entire duration of 5 hours, you will have to feign interest, laugh at some lame jokes then clap. And the only moment you’ve been waiting for, out of the total time of 5 hours, lasts all of 2 glorious seconds. So for the most parts I’ve been reduced to entertaining myself with quirky thoughts to keep myself from nodding off. (and much of the funny ideas I get are elicited by the cmi speeches and potter-ish gowns I see)
And it was while examining the entire academic life of my sister, when it dawned on me – the Moo-Moo theory. It was so clear and apparent but was never noticed till now, in a single moment of boredom, I had discovered it. As if gaining enlightenment, I turned to my sister’s bf and said, “don’t you think that something bad always happens each time the cow babies graduate?”
So here is my theory in full:
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The MOO-MOO TheoryThe theory postulates that the boom-bust cycles of the economy are inexplicably tied to the academic progression of the cow babies. A bust is triggered every time the cow babies reach a particular academic milestone, ie completing their ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels, or upon graduation. The length of each recession can be inferred from the length of time that the cow babies have spent in their precedent institution.
The theory is premised upon the assumption that the cow babies assume the shortest possible route to graduation in the education landscape:
Pri Sch --> Sec Sch --> JC --> University --> GRADUATION!
The education landscape here refers to Singapore’s education system. The model is not applicable on any other education systems unless they adopt the same system as ours.
Please note that cow babies here refer ONLY to female babies born in the year of 1985. For national defence reasons, the ox babies effect have been removed from this study.
Emprical Evidence
1997: PSLE vs Asian Financial CrisisIn 1997, when the cow babies graduated from their primary schools to secondary education institutions, the Asia region was dealt what was arguably the worst financial blow in 10 years – the Financial Crisis. The effects of the crisis were particularly devastating with many countries being bankrupted by the crisis. It took the region a good 10 years to fully recover from the impact of the crisis, and why so? Because the cow babies had spent a good 6 years in their primary schools.
2001: ‘O’ Levels vs Dotcom BustAs Asia was struggling to recoup from the devastating Asian Financial Crisis, the west was dealt a harsh blow in 2001 with the Dotcom bust that had threatened to halt globalization and the onward march of the Internet era. Many internet firms went bankrupt during that time and the world went into a global recession precipitated by a bust in many technology stocks. This once again coincided with the year that the cow babies were taking their ‘O’ Levels.
Although the actual recovery period cannot be properly assessed because recovery efforts were impeded by fears of a SARS outbreak (See next section), conservative estimates put the recovery period at about 3 months – by 2004, the American property market was rather buzzing with life again. So the entire recovery period was 3 years, slightly less than the 4 years the cow babies had spent in their secondary schools. Perhaps, the effects of globalization had shortened the time required for the economy to recover from the moo-moo effect.
2003: ‘A’ Levels vs SARS outbreakThe SARS outbreak, although short in its duration, was nonetheless, damaging to our tourist and service sectors. Spooked by a HWO advisory statement against travel to Southeast Asia, investment funds and businessmen retreated from the region. Once again, the outbreak had occurred in the last year of the cow babies’ junior college education. Thankfully, the cow babies had spent only 2 short years in their junior colleges, thus pushing the economy towards a speedy recovery in 2005. And by 2006, growth had reached an all time high in Singapore.
2007: Graduation vs Sub-prime Crisis + Food Crisis + Oil Crisis2006 was certainly a good year for most nations except the forgotten regions of Africa. Growth all round was reaching record levels and even the Japanese economy which had been languishing in the doldrums since the Financial Crisis, was starting to seem a glimmer of recovery. Even with the oil prices reaching record levels, the world economy was fiercely resilient to any negative market sentiments.
But the good times did not last long, for the cow babies had to graduate from their universities. And as if in a final congratulatory gesture to the cow babies, the world economy underwent a complete transformation into the worst of the economist’s nightmare: the stagflation. First went the US economy as the sub-prime crisis reared its head. As the world weathered a global slow-down, possibly prevented only by the ferocious Asian economies, talk of unsustainable growth and inflation stoked negative investment sentiments in Asia. And all countries, save for the oil rich Russia and Middle Eastern nations (and environmentally-friendly Brazil), were badly affected by the high crude oil prices.
Looking Forward
If the theory is to be believed, then the current crisis will perhaps last about 3 years, since the cow babies had spent an average of 3.5 years in their universities. Which is all good for the dragon babies graduating in 3 years’ time.
But then again, the scale of this crisis is rather huge with a stronger feedback effect thanks to globalization. And given this is the last step in the cow babies’ education trajectory, the economy might be dealing its worst deal now. If so, then the dragon babies’ have been doomed by the cows.
And from hereon, the economy landscape will be even vaguer now that the cow babies have graduated. Masters and PhDs may be milestone in selected cow babies’ lives, but we do not yet know how many and who, and if the effect would be still as pronounced.
Conclusion:On a concluding note, it is interesting to note that the world was locked in a similar oil spike in the mid 1980s, round about the time the cow babies were born. The links behind the cow babies and the economy are rather inexplicable. All that can be inferred is the high correlation between the two.
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Ok. Thank you for making it thus far. Someone hand me my Nobel now. Haha.To my dearest sis: congratulations dear! You know we are all damn proud of you even though your graduation just screwed the world economy over. Like totally. Haha =]
